2019 BAFTA Awards nominations analysis: Who’s up (‘The Favourite,’ ‘BlacKkKlansman’) & who’s down (‘Vice,’ ‘Mary Poppins Returns’) in Oscar race


The 2019 BAFTA Awards nominations were announced on Jan. 9. Historically, about two-thirds of the contenders here go to reap Academy Awards bids. And with the two academies sharing about 600 voters in common, the BAFTAs are an important campaign stop on the road to the Oscars. This year’s BAFTA ceremony will take place at London’s Royal Albert Hall on Feb. 10, two days before Oscar voters begin final voting. (See the full list of BAFTA nominations.)

So how do this year’s BAFTA Awards nominations affect the Oscar race? In the analysis below, we consider who’s up and who’s down.

SEE 2019 BAFTA Awards by the numbers: Every film, every nomination

UP

The Favourite
It earned more BAFTA nominations (12) than any other film this year. That certainly helped raise the profile of “The Shape of Water” last year. This home-grown favourite contends in all the top categories — Best Picture, Director (Yorgos Lanthimos), Actress (Olivia Colman), Supporting Actress (Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz), Original Screenplay —  as well five below the line plus Best British Film.

“BlacKkKlansman”
Any concern that this film would not resonate outside America was erased by the five BAFTA bids, including Best Picture and two for Spike Lee as both director and writer.

Bohemian Rhapsody
While it was shut out of Best Picture line-up, which only has five nominees, this biopic reaped a lucky seven bids, including one for Best Actor (Rami Malek). It is the strongest rival to “The Favourite” for Best British Film.

“First Man”
Damien Chazelle‘s biopic of pioneering astronaut Neil Armstrong also received seven nominations. That is a big boost during Oscar voting. Claire Foy is certainly a strong possibility as she picked up yet another Supporting Actress nomination. And it is well-positioned in several below-the-line races.

SEE 2019 BAFTA Awards: Full list of nominations led by ‘The Favourite’ with 12

DOWN

“If Beale Street Could Talk”
The film was all but shut out with director Barry Jenkins contending only for his adaptation of the James Baldwin novel of the same name and another bid for original music. Regina King was snubbed for her acclaimed supporting turn. But remember that both “Get Out” and “Moonlight,” two other films helmed by African-Americans, under-performed here as well.

“Mary Poppins Returns”
This long-awaited sequel failed to impress BAFTA voters, who gave it just three nominations below-the-line. Emily Blunt was overlooked for her performance in the title role.

“Vice”
While Adam McKay contends for his original script, he was snubbed for directing and this political satire does not number among the five nominees for Best Picture. On the plus side, three of the cast were nominated: Christian Bale for his leading role as former US Vice President Dick Cheney, as well as supporting players Amy Adams and Sam Rockwell as Lynne Cheney and George W. Bush.

SEE 2019 BAFTA Awards nominations: ‘The Favourite’ far ahead of ‘Roma, ‘A Star Is Born,’ ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’

ABOUT THE SAME

“Green Book”
After sweeping the Golden Globes on Sunday, the film maintains its momentum during Oscar voting week with four nominations from the British academy, including for Best Picture and actors Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. While Peter Farrelly contends for scripting, he was snubbed for directing.

“Roma”
It did receive three top nominations: Picture, Director (Alfonso Cuaron) and Original Screenplay. This intimate film is one of only four to be nominated for both directing and writing. However, it would have been helped by recognition for the performance of newcomer Yalitza Aparicio.

“A Star is Born”
As expected, the Oscar frontrunner earned nominations in all the marquee categories with Bradley Cooper sharing in five of these as producer, director, actor, writer and as part of the original music team. Likewise, Lady Gaga reaped bids for acting and her musicianship. However, Sam Elliott was left out of the supporting actor line-up. And it failed to break through below-the-line save for sound.

SEE 5 performers who got an Oscar boost from BAFTA nominations: Viola Davis, Adam Driver, Claire Foy, Sam Rockwell, Margot Robbie

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 22.

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