“Roma,” Alfonso Cuaron‘s visual love song to his childhood caretaker while growing up in ’70s Mexico City, could make history if it becomes the first Critics’ Choice winner in 24 years to claim trophies for Best Foreign Film as well as Best Picture. That’s based on the overwhelming odds for its success in those categories.
While the black-and-white Netflix release couldn’t compete for best drama picture at the Golden Globes since the pool is limited to films in English, it did pick up a gold knick-knack in the foreign-language category and for best director. Right now, before voting begins on Thursday, “Roma” is the clear front-runner among its non-English competition with 39/10 odds. The only rival that comes close is “Cold War,” Poland’s official entry at the Oscars, about a music director and a singer who engage in a torrid affair that starts after World War II and carries on through the years.
All Eight Experts participating — Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Susan King (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and myself — and the entire squad of seven Gold Derby Editors plus every one of the Top 24 Users are backing ‘Spider-Verse,’ which already has a Golden Globe. “Cold War” in second place has 5/1 total odds but its support is fairly weak.
In a three-way tie for third are three films that made the Oscar’s short list — Japan’s crime drama “Shoplifters,” Lebanon’s heart-breaking slum tale “Capernaum” and South Korea’s dramatic mystery “Burning” — all with 11/2 odds.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on Jan. 13.