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January 7, 2019 at 11:14 pm #1202725212
On the one hand, the Globe snubs have got to hurt.
On the other hand, it’s the only film that’s hit every guild.
On the subject of the Globes:
On the one hand, those results have undoubtedly dampened its momentum.
On the other hand, just perhaps, the fact that it lost to a film with a Metascore of 48, says more about the Globes than it does ASIB itself? How does the industry react? Is it something WB’s PR team could capitalize on?
What do you think?January 7, 2019 at 11:19 pm #1202725217
Still going to win. It’s 7 for 7 at the Guilds, which actual Oscar voters actually vote for. The HFPA are infamous to rewarding the studio who gives their 93 members the most talent access.
ASIB is still the front runner but Roma could surpriseJanuary 7, 2019 at 11:24 pm #1202725227
if I work for wb’s pr team I would be pushing articles about bryan singer on every publicationJanuary 8, 2019 at 12:10 am #1202725279
ASIB is not the lock that many people thought it was (myself included), but people saying it has no chance at all now need to rethink that. The movies that win the Globe peak early on, with two months left until the Oscars. That could help them or not. In the case of Green Book and BR, it will NOT help them because both are receiving a ton of backlash. ASIB left the Globes being the underdog, so those people out there who really loved this movie will support it more than ever now – this week is Oscar voting! No one will be rolling their eyes come Oscar day since ASIB will not sweep like many of us expected.
Personally, I have no idea who the frontrunner is, we need to wait for the Oscar nods. We have to check certain categories for upsets. If ASIB doesn’t get screenplay or Elliot, then that’s a sign of weakness. Conversely, if it gets those two and, let’s say, both sound categories, then that’s a sign of strength.
If Black Panther gets a second or third above-the-line nod, then that’s very telling as well.
Bohemian Rhapsody is getting that BP nod, whether people like it or not. It got PGA, it won the Globe, it has SAG Ensemble. There’s no way that it doesn’t get into the top 9. Will it win? I don’t think so.
The Globes made everything much more interesting. Can’t wait to see how everything unfolds.
- This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Luca Giliberti.
FYC Oscars 2019: Viola Davis (Widows) - Best ActressJanuary 8, 2019 at 12:20 am #1202725293
Best Actress race is pretty much over. Glenn played ALL her cards right. She mentioned everything she needed to say in her speech: women empowerment, she’s been in the business for 45 years (overdue), that she still loves her job and finds self-fulfillment in it..
However, I do think yesterday’s snub will help ASIB in Best Picture. BR was such a bad pick. And you never want to be the frontrunner this early. Sometimes being the underdog really helps, like Glenn Close. She became the underdog when ASIB came out and turned it around.January 8, 2019 at 12:21 am #1202725294
When Gaga lost, I thought her front runner status has just been cleared. While that may be true to a degree, that still doesn’t erase the fact that the Globes voted very against the grain this time. White saviour film Green Book winning three awards, Freddie’s Teeth winning Best Drama, and a slew of other weird choices (Kominsky method? Amy Adams being paid dust?) proved that they really got it very wrong. I hope the guilds push A Star is Born hard, cause they’ve just been dealt a huge blow and they need guild awards to show people that it’s not just media hype. It’s not over yet, but it’s definitely a harder uphill battle from here.January 8, 2019 at 12:34 am #1202725301
The only lock is for Original Song.
It’s quite possible the industry is bored of the ASIB hype. Now the hype could go elsewhere.
I still stand firm that Roma will win Best Picture. Bohemian Rhapsody somewhat destroyed ASIB’s momentum, and BR is so not winning. Not buying Green Book. Roma is the type of “artsy” film that will go over well with preferential voting. Plus, the voters will want diversity.
If you ignore the industry hype, Gaga was always going to have an uphill battle, being that this is her first major role and she is going against someone with massive acclaim (Olivia Colman) and an overdue veteran (Glenn Close). Gaga is already a virtual lock for a song Oscar, so why would they go Gaga in Actress when Glenn has never won an Oscar (or Globe for her movies) and Gaga could win elsewhere? Bradley Cooper has not been the favorite amongst critics either.
I think the Golden Globe faltering will crossover to the Oscars as well. Bradley just hasn’t had much luck with his movies. He’s shaping up to be “overdue” soon enough.January 8, 2019 at 12:51 am #1202725314
I think it’s still the front-runner to win picture (in addition to supporting actor, song, sound mixing and maybe even Actor – I still believe Cooper might take SAG).
Why do I think it is the front-runner? Easy. It hasn’t missed a guild – four SAG nods, more than any other film (including Ensemble and three individual nominations), a PGA nod, a WGA nod (no matter how much the script has been criticized and doesn’t deserve the nod), an ASC nod, a Cinema Editors Guild nod, an ADG nod. If the film gets DGA, it’ll have all the guilds on its side. ROMA does not have SAG. Unlike The Shape of Water, it got a total of zero SAG nods. Unlike The Shape of Water, it’s a Netflix movie and we know how the industry looks at Netflix. Unlike The Shape of Water, it’s in a foreign language. Of course, it might prevail in the end, if the race is way too split; it can benefit from being highly ranked on many ballots (without being first on that many). But it faces many hurdles.
Right now, I’ll say that if A Star Is Born does well with the DGA and SAG, I’ll predict it for picture. The PGA seems likely. But what about SAG?
The film is up for three individual wins. It won’t leave the show without a win. Or at least, it’s unlikely. I believe that Cooper has a very good shot but if they don’t go with him, they might honor Elliott. He’s your usual SAG winner. Ali won two years ago and the performance is absolutely average. Does Grant have the momentum? Chalamet is over. Driver is just lucky to be there. Elliott, while not deserving, has the advantage of an illustrious and underrated career and might very well benefit from that.January 8, 2019 at 1:02 am #1202725317
I have many theories.
A user said that they wanted to punish ASIB, because they didn’t have to decided wherever they will be competing in. So, they agreed to let them enter in the drama field to not reward them at the end. but what about BR then?
Well I think they were aware of the love the movie received. Ppl were getting crazy about Rami on the Golden Globes’s Instagram page. BR is a box office hit that reached levels nobody was expecting, it’s about Freddie Mercury, they knew the living Queen members were attending the ceremony, the award was meant the last to be given, they will make big titles (which worked out pretty well)
People are surprised and happy the moviegoers are pissed including myself.
But i doubt BR is winning BP at the Oscars.
ASIB is weakened but still doing fine with the others to come.
Plus Luca is right, People are complaining about Green Book, because Blackkklansman and THUG two movies that represed better racism than this movie about a white man educating a black man, are shouted out to Green Book, plus Farrelly’s acceptance speech was so pretentious and annoying So the backlash is real.
God this award season is interestingJanuary 8, 2019 at 1:19 am #1202725322
Best Original Song.January 8, 2019 at 3:23 am #1202725390
It would need to sweep at SAG, and it’s not going to happen imo.January 8, 2019 at 3:49 am #1202725403
It’s in exactly the same position it was before. One of the favourites.
With all the frontrunner hype it had early on the fact that that has been dampened down is a good thing and it still has plenty of time to rally.
If anything these wins are bad for Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody as they shine a much unneeded spotlight on how dreadful they both are.January 8, 2019 at 3:50 am #1202725405
Isn’t it weird that Farrelly a white man was preaching about people of different races coming together. I would have preferred if Barry Jenkins spoke on that topic or Spike Lee. Their films both deserved to win best picture way more than BR a movie 🎥 made by a creepJanuary 8, 2019 at 4:12 am #1202725420
ASIB was not that much liked by foreigners critics compared to Americans. So thinking it was an HFPA thing was maybe just our delusions. And I think it not sweeping the globes is actually good for it and its legacy, it won’t be remembered as an overrated movie. Green Book is getting that backlash. I still think Roma wins at the end.
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